Evaluating Twenty‐Year Trends in Earth's Energy Flows From Observations and Reanalyses

Abstract Satellite, reanalysis, and ocean in situ data are analyzed to evaluate regional, hemispheric global mean trends Earth's energy fluxes during the first 20 years of twenty‐first century. Regional net top‐of‐atmosphere (TOA) radiation from Clouds Radiant Energy System (CERES), ECMWF Reanalysis 5 (ERA5), a model similar ERA5 with prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) ice differ markedly, particularly over Eastern Pacific Ocean, where CERES observes large positive trends. Hemispheric TOA flux for two reanalyses smaller than CERES, their climatological means half those southern hemisphere (SH) more nine times larger northern (NH). The regional trend pattern divergence total atmospheric transport (TEDIV) determined using fields is that inferred difference between short‐term forecasts. There also agreement as residual analysis TEDIV obtained directly Robust observed Gulf Stream associated enhanced surface‐to‐atmosphere transfer heat. Within ocean, heating rate found NH SH after 2005, but magnitude varies greatly among datasets.